# (2/3) The eugenics of a Mars Colony.

(1/3) “Man fears time…”

(2/3) The eugenics of a Mars Colony.

It hurt me to write this. And I promise it will hurt to read this. I’ve been putting this off for several months, and I’m not sure I should have written it. Please consider this carefully before you continue.

## The plan, the engineering and the form of the problem.

Elon Musk is planning on establishing a colony on the planet Mars (announcement video). He will attempt to send 1 million people.

There are many problems that have to be solved to make this possible. Many of them are technical: Access to clean water, power generation, and growing food. As difficult as they are, these problems are well-defined and well scoped.

In effect, he seems to be claiming that he and SpaceX will be able to construct an entirely new civilization from nothing but fine red dust. Even this, as absurd as it sounds, I would be willing to grant. Not just because of his track record, but because if the laws of physics don’t forbid it, we should assume that it can be engineered. Musk himself has talked about how some limits result from a lack of imagination about what’s possible. The trouble is knowing what limits are actually implied by physical principles.

There are other problems though, that aren’t as well defined. Who’s labor will make all of this possible? Elon hasn’t been able to shield the workers in his own factories from the weight of his ambitions. The value and the labor must come from somewhere, and the problems of power and exploitation have never been solved by anyone, anywhere, at any time in human history since agriculture.

So who will go to do the work of building this civilization out of the dust? It will fail without the presence of an underclass, like many of the first colonies in America before they began importing slaves like Baldwin’s nigger[1].

You don’t have to watch the entire video if you’re already familiar with Baldwin. It will help to understand my perspective here.

## The socioeconomic pyramid, and its thermodynamic mode.

I need an aside here to clarify something. In the writing that follows I will treat phenomena at the city, country, and international scale interchangeably. This is deliberate, and I think order for this to make sense I have to assume the global economic system has a special property. Notice if we think of it as a kind of ecological energy pyramid, we can zoom in on parts of it and still have a pyramid – essential properties hold at any scale. For me to freely swap observations about behavior at different scales, though, I don’t think it’s strictly required to be a pyramid. It may only be required that the global economic system have scale invariance. This is part of why I think some methods from statistical physics that rely on that symmetry may be useful in understanding it, but that’s another subject. And there’s another thing which is very important: collective behaviors are not necessarily the linear sum, or average of individual behaviors. Normal human intuition totally fails at this. A community may have some kind emergent ‘intent’ all its own that grows out of individual behaviors in subtle and unpredictable ways.

I don’t think Musk being entirely open about his motivations for going to Mars. He says he worries about asteroids, and other “eventual” extinction events, but his main concern is clearly human originated scenarios. Those other more astronomical events belong to some longer timescale that wouldn’t put his attempt to leave on such a short timetable.

Make careful note of the omissions:

Musk 1/21/2014: I think demographics is a real issue where people are not having kids in a lot of countries. Very often they say well we’ll solve it with immigration. Well immigration from where? If many parts of Europe have an average of 50 or 60% of what’s needed for replacement – or China for that matter – they’re at half replacement rate. Where exactly are we going to find 6 million people to replace the ones that were never born? I think people are gong to have to regard, to some degree, the notion of having kids as almost a social duty – within reason. If you can, if you’re so inclined, you should. Otherwise civilization will just die, literally.

The birthrate is inversely correlated to wealth, inversely correlated to education, and correlated to religion. So the more religious you are, the less educated, and the poorer you are the more kids you will have. And this is true between countries and within countries. In the U.S. the highest birthrate is in Utah, with the Mormons.

I think if you say what are the threats to civilization, the lack of people is obviously a threat to civilization. We are going to face in the mid part of this century – and particularly the latter part of the century – a demographic implosion the likes of which we haven’t seen including the Black plague. The math is obvious. When did China ever experience a 50% reduction in its population? Never. Basically pre-writing, because no one’s ever written of such a thing. Even the Black Plague – I think they might have [lost?] like a quarter, but never a half, yet Spain – birthrate of 50%. It’s as if someone went through and killed half of the population – or at least of the future population. There’s something better happen to turn this around. Otherwise, you have an inverted demographic pyramid and it’s going to – [gestures falling over] at this rate the only thing that will be left will be robots.

For a while I thought Musk intended to run away from the planet, like he ran away from South Africa. That he planned on leaving all of the human dross behind and remaking a world with what he believes are more worthy people. But his actual sentiments must be more complicated than that, and I can’t pretend to be able to read his mind.

When white Americans and Europeans make prognostications about the future, it is their habit not to take into account the agency of Africans, and other people of the global south. Their predictions usually reveal an implicit assumption that non-whites are some kind of mud people with no capacity for conscious thought or planning of their own [2]. Often these countries are forgotten completely. But Elon Musk was born and raised under apartheid South Africa, a rapacious reader and fully aware of the world around him. He shouldn’t have this problem. This is why I think the omission was deliberate.

From the U.N. a few years ago (link):

The current world population of 7.2 billion is projected to increase by 1 billion over the next 12 years and reach 9.6 billion by 2050, according to a United Nations report launched today, which points out that growth will be mainly in developing countries, with more than half in Africa.

Musk omitted mention of Africa, and the years between now and this projected peak near 2050 because these years are the most dangerous. Before we have to deal with underpopulation, we will have to ask if the planet can support 10 billion people. I do not believe overpopulation itself is a problem – the problem has always been over-consumption. Birthrates are greater, as he says, for countries low in social development. But no country has ever advanced itself without a growth in externalities. For example in Brazil, the first among the emerging economies, deforestation of the Amazon burdens indigenous people with the costs of development, and overuse of water resources by industry and agriculture have created a dangerous situation for city-dwellers. Brazil’s birthrate has plummeted as it developed, and the education of women improved. But this was attended by a increase in externalities, which may actually be a form of dissipation, required by the second law of thermodynamics, that richer communities and countries are privileged to be able to shove off onto poorer ones [3].

Eventually this process must end or transition to another regime – and not because the planet has an absolute carrying capacity. That is, not due to the population alone, but the product of population and per capita energy and resource consumption. The latter grows at a rate larger than the decay of the former as a country develops, so that what is gained by a drop in fertility is more than lost through modernization. The most developed countries are therefore the greatest burden, and their externalities eventually consume the whole globe. The people at the lowest tiers of the pyramid, assuming this notion of dissipation is correct, do not have a “heat sink.” At the bottom there isn’t anything unload costs on except the planet itself. Ruin, mainly through climate change follows.

And now in a bid to reach a higher position, people in many developing countries are immigrating to the wealthier countries that exploit their home lands. This effect, combined with the radical shift in the world population due to the wild incongruence in birthrates result in the present global racial tension, as racism is at the center of the process people use to create a moral pretense for systems of plunder. It is how privileged classes can maintain the absurd ideology that the poor owe the rich and not the other way around.

It is my view that the racism and nationalism of human beings virtually guarantees that they cannot withstand a such a rapid shift in the racial make-up of their countries without violence on a large scale. When you ask an American about over population, they are prone to say something that implies they think there are too many Chinese people alive, or that Hispanics have too many kids (offering no such concerns about Mormons). If I were to ask an Indian, I assume they’re liable to make some reference to people of lower caste, or Muslims. People who believe all human lives are of equal worth should recognize they are in the minority, or more likely be honest with themselves about what they are.

The people who voted for Brexit, Trump, and Le Pen know what they are, and they know what they don’t like. What they don’t like is this feeling that their countries are being taken over by people with colored skin. The basic process that is occurring now I have been anticipating for the last fifteen years, though my reasoning back then drew on personal biases from my own experience with people. I can’t express how heartbreaking it has been to realize the person I was ten years ago would have better anticipated the choice whites made in electing Trump, and I have felt myself a fool for having grown out of the slightest amount of cynicism. I used to joke about how easy it would be to Nazify the United States, and that when World War 3 began the U.S. would be the aggressor and its motivations would make the conflict indistinguishable from a race war [4]. Americans have no armor against this, and repeating “this is not normal” won’t help: before the election Americans lived in a country with 20% of the world’s prison population, disproportionately black and brown (The New Jim Crow, Last Days of Solitary) and they were living with that like it was normal. It is a part of human adaptability to become accustomed (or willfully blind) to things that are horrifying.

Hans Rosling [5] suggested nothing short of a nuclear war would stop this population growth among the poorest billion, and we may yet have that. Even if apocalyptic maniacs like Steven Bannon and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi are removed from power, the forces that put them in place are so much greater. But I am still a fool, and it makes me happy to be wrong about these things.

## The eugenics of a Mars Colony.

Now, what does Musk really believe about the future, given that he’s not saying everything? He isn’t hiding any white supremacist style racism. Musk is either

unaware of how profound a problem racism and nationalism are in the futures he’s talking about,

trying very hard to ignore and feign ignorance of them. Or

believes these problems are more easily solved than those he is working on.

He seems to be like a Trekkie in that he believes the magic of science fiction should be able to solve this problem, without the intervention of any actual science. I find it hard to believe that he could be as daft as the rest of his class; all of the evidence he’s left indicate he’s accepted the privilege of not having to deal with the issue. I believe most whites genuinely don’t understand it, but I believe he does understand it and has chosen silence.

Now it is a feature of systemic racism and class structure, being dependent global properties, that their effects are robust to many kinds of individual behavior. By that I mean the system’s organization alone reproduces a proximate cause, and that there’s some large class of individual motivations that all correspond to the same macroscopic behavior. It may be our curse to participate in systems whose emergent malice lies beyond the reach of our intentions. Though this is not to excuse the feedback loops that appear between leaders and constituents (The Color of Law, still need to read this one).

And this is how the escape to Mars will reproduce a kind of eugenics, which selects on the correlates of socioeconomic status. And I dare to say Musk has already made this observation. He knows that like Tesla’s cars, access to Mars will have to be rich people first. His claim of making it so everybody can go means everybody in the developed world who is not poor, especially white Americans (who have on average 16 times the wealth of black Americans). He may believe it is unavoidable that if we want to go to Mars at all, it will have to be done like this.

There is a dread implication here I hope you’ll be spared noticing. It may be the worst thought that has ever stained my mind. It is nearly unspeakable. I will not reference this implication further.

If he believes the wealthiest people can just leave Earth behind he is wrong. His actions seem to indicate that he does believe that. This is why it was necessary to write the pyramid post first. Because it directly attacks the core vanity that causes Americans to misapprehend their relationship to the rest of the world, and wealthy people of all countries to the working class(Coates). Their success is not independent of class stratification, it requires it. No society has yet been able to function in any other way, and without an alternative the colony will fail like our civilization here is failing.

Again, the Mars colony has as much chance of success as American colonies did before they started importing slaves. For the Mars colony to function, they would have to bring not just people who can afford to go, but also enough labor as is made necessary by the exploitative thermodynamic mode of our societies.

We don’t get to run away from our problems. We face them and fix them, or else carry them with us wherever we go. Something fundamental about how humans live and relate to each other, our relationships as defined by flows of energy and resources have to be altered. And no one will escape without finally answering James Baldwin’s question, “Why was it necessary to have a nigger in the first place?” That the ruling class is terrified of this question and evaded it is the reason we are in this situation.

Most of us will remain on Earth, to deal with these problems and evolve as a species, if the laws of physics even allow it. To transcend the conditions of our lives or die. We are hurtling toward a singularity and flailing desperately for some guarantee of survival. This is humanity, in extremis.

(3/3) In Extremis. (soon)

1. I was considering posting a review of I Am Not Your Negro, but it seems unnecessary (Dagmawi Woubshet, Cassie da CostaHolly Genovese). I notice the movie has been called prescient and even ‘prophetic’, but those folks misunderstand. Baldwin was talking about his world and his time. It only sounds like prophesy because so little has changed. And really black folks have very little to learn from it, as beautifully as it elucidates and corroborates their testimony. White folks are having their worldview shaken (A.O. Scott) only because they’re so profoundly ignorant.(return)

2. Or to take Steven Bannon and his favorite book as an example, these assumptions are just as often explicit and openly racist.(return)

3. This may be easier to understand with an example at the city scale. It is necessary (to externalize costs) to have power plants and factories spew pollution into the air. Will the rich neighborhood tolerate this? Of course not – put the black folks downwind and let their children pay the price. This sort of thing happens in nearly every city in America. In this case, because some chemical process is occurring that brings matter from an organized state to a more disorganized one, namely that pollutants diffuse, it is clear that the avoided cost is a kind of dissipation. It is a separate claim, and harder to justify, that many of the social problems in poor communities(The Poisoned Generation) are also a kind of system state that takes in entropy produced by wealthier communities. I cannot justify the claim that this “dissipation” may be required by thermodynamics, and I don’t know how to predict a theoretical limit on it if it is required.(return)

4. It doesn’t seem to be required that most Americans become racist for this to happen. There is a violent ethnonationalist core in the Republican party, and it is only required that they be allowed to act freely. These people are prepared to use violence to get what they want, but white moderates are not prepared to withstand violence on their own bodies to stop them. The lives of people of color just don’t matter enough. So white nationalists may escalate without response. The reaction to Black Lives Matter made it clear from whom most Americans will tolerate violence.(return)

5. Has Rosling gave an incredibly simple breakdown of things seven years ago, if you need that. It is critical to remember the caveats he had to offer in that talk, which many cornucopians prefer to ignore. He said population might hold at 9 billion; the most recent projections are closer to 10 billion. We will never reach this number. Because consumption (in this ‘mode’) grows exponentially, and I find it hard to imagine an energy source that can grow at that rate.(return)

6. I’m not going to entertain the suggestion that the plan may be to use AI and construct robots for labor and resource extraction. Although I consider it plausible Musk intends this, it’s better saved for a later post.
7. There is going to be a major sex ratio problem that Musk doesn’t seem to have anticipated at all. And it seems his companies may have a sexism problem that the American media is trying to keep quiet about (the Gaurdian isn’t). Sometime soon one of the geniuses at SpaceX is likely to have an “Astonishingly good idea.”

# American Terrorism is making a comeback.

I think there is a reason we haven’t had a major act of anti-government extremist, or white nationalist terrorism since the Oklahoma City bombing(1). It seems like some people have forgotten there even was such a thing. I believe the reason has something to do with the vigilance of the FBI and other federal authorities over the last 20 years.

If you look over this list Southern Poverty Law Center has gathered, here, you might notice these patterns:

1. Most of the completed attacks were carried out by lone wolves, and typically required little planning.
2. The attacks that involved a group of people, or were complex enough to require long-term planning and communication with a number of people for coordination and material were prevented.

The lone wolves are more difficult to catch, of course, but their capabilities working solo are limited. Any significant amount of cooperation or a group that spends a lot of time in planning is much more likely to be detected by authorities in the networks these groups operate in.

So it seems to me the FBI has been keeping a lid on American terrorist attacks for about 20 years now. Some observers have commented that racist and extremist groups are always infighting, and I think FBI involvement is one cause of that – most of these groups have been infiltrated by informants or actual agents. These organizations can be sabotaged easily with simple antics, like accusing the leadership of being Jewish. I have been lurking Stormfront for a long time, and the hand of federal authorities seems evident to me in a lot of the internal conflicts in the white nationalist sphere.

But now, WN’s have a reason to celebrate with Jeff Sessions running the Justice Department and the administration making clear that they intend to ignore white nationalist terrorism. The election has triggered a surge in recruiting in white nationalist and affiliated groups, and the formation of new groups, which will operate outside the attention of federal authorities.

Most of this post is probably not news to you; my purpose here is to make the simple point: It’s not some stroke of luck that we have gone this long without an attack on the scale of the Oklahoma City bombing – it is the result of diligence on the part of law enforcement. Without that diligent suppression in a few short years we should expect a return to abortion clinic bombings, and attacks on mosques and the offices of civil rights groups. And new for the 21st century, white terrorist groups that have been allowed to grow in complexity and metastasize will attempt progressively more sophisticated and larger scale attacks: we have the risk of dirty bombs, chemical/biological weapons, and cyber attacks from them as well.

1. Most of this post formed while I was watching the recent pbs doc about the OKC bombing in 1995.

# (1/3) “Man fears time…”

I have wondered if Imhotep had some hidden meaning in the pyramid. Little is recorded about him, but he lived during the Old Kingdom of Egypt under Djoser. He seems to have been born a commoner, and become renown as a great architect, sage, and perhaps the first physician in the world. His monument to King Djoser, the Step Pyramid, is the archetype for all pyramids that followed and the oldest stone structure in the world.

Pyramids are uniquely stable structures. They have survived many thousands of years and all the storms and earthquakes that time could bring. The mass at the peak of the pyramid we may say is in a high energy state. It is supported by progressively larger masses that reside at lower points of the gravitational potential. This is the thermodynamic analogy I mean to draw, and I speculate:

That Imhotep, born a commoner and working at a time when there may have still been living memory of an Egypt much less advanced, and therefore much less hierarchical. He may have understood on some deep level the changes in social structure that were necessary to make the pyramid possible. Because pyramids are built by slaves, and laborers, and craftsmen of many kinds. Hunters and gatherers cannot build them, and pastoral nomads can’t either. Only a culture with advanced agriculture and the division of labor agriculture makes possible can build structures like this.

The great works of the ancient world were not possible without slavery, and systems of exploitation and power rise to reflect the skyward structures themselves. Then, at the earliest years of that civilization, Imhotep may have understood in some way that Egypt had passed into a new thermodynamic mode of existence. A mode in which energy is drawn up through the roots of plants, and into the people who plant and harvest them and other resources, to flow up and be concentrated into progressively more privileged classes, to terminate finally in the vested power, privilege, and abundance of the King.

There is a clear connection here to the flows of energy in ecosystems. Apex predators eat and scavenge whatever they can. A lion will steal a kill from a hyena. The grazing animals are fed ultimately by the sun. People deny this similarity because they don’t want to know they are eating each other.

In a way, modern civilization seems to be an extension of an ecological structure that humans used to be embedded in, or maybe civilization has superseded that ecology completely. We were prey once. Then we became apex predators. We have advanced our civilization by replacing most of the world’s fauna with our own biomass in both livestock and human chattel. And the more developed a society tries to become, the more material must be put underneath in the base. Egypt and other ancient civilizations could only advance so far, but the modern western imperium extends across the entire globe, purchasing its privileges with sweatshops and child miners.

There are observations to make and questions to ask. I won’t have  a proper response to all of these. Among the most important:

• The poor don’t need the wealthy, but the wealthy do need the poor. The world is right-side up, not upside down as Ayn Rand would have it.
• Scientific discoveries are typically made by the upper classes.  They benefit everyone, but not uniformly. Most of the benefit reaches the upper classes first, or exclusively.
• People are interdependent, and though it’s not clear that the quality of life in post-agricultural civilization is better in absolute terms, most people today would not be alive without modern technology. Is it forbidden by the laws of physics to have this modernity without its gross inequality?
• Are there scaling principles at work such that the thermodynamics of current societies could be used to predict an upper limit to any society’s development, assuming the total flux of energy on the surface of the Earth bounds its base?
• There are limits on an empire’s geographic span which seem to determine how wide the base can become, and these limits are primarily technological, viz. communications technology may have played a dominant role in determining the size of social structures in each era of history. What effects are due to new technologies, not just in the size, but in the topology of society?
• If preagricultural societies exist in a “first” thermodynamic mode, and post-agricultural societies are in a second mode, does a third mode exist?  If I have anything worthwhile on this question it will wait until part 3 of these posts.

It has always bothered me that Americans never seem to understand their relationship to the rest of the world. It is the nature of privilege never to recognize itself, but it is absurd to see them so oblivious to how they in fact depend on the poverty in the greater part of the developing world and the working class in their own country.

I can’t go to the grocery store without being reminded of this. My hands aren’t the first to touch the onion and the tomatoes in the produce section. You see, it is apparently very hard to build a machine that can cut the stem of an onion and leave the bulb intact. It’s necessary to have people, sometimes children, do this by hand. They crawl through the field on their hands and knees under the summer sun and cut the stems with a knife. In the western United States of course, these people are mostly immigrants from Central and South America and their children.

The pyramid of Djoser is a reification of the Egyptian social structure in power and exploitation that was necessary to construct it. And like the pyramid, it may be that social structure is just as long lived, and reflects some underlying thermodynamic stability. There is an irony then in the old Arab Proverb,

Man fears time, but time fears the pyramids.

Do we really know how to build pyramids, or was that knowledge buried with Imhotep and hidden with his tomb? Have we learned the secrets hidden in our own societies? Do we know what is necessary for a long-lived, sustainable, self-sufficient society?

Does it bear repeating that the Step Pyramid is a tomb? And how long will it last, compared to the sand dunes that flow across the eons of the desert?

Some of these things I have understood, if dimly, since I was a 12 year old crawling through an onion field with a rusty knife in my hand. I don’t know if I’ve made much progress in my understanding. I was actually working on a post about Elon Musk’s Mars Colony, when I realized I hadn’t written this yet.

(2/3) The eugenics of a Mars Colony.

(3/3) In Extremis. (soon)

# Living in Avalon

…If you assume any rate of improvement at all, then the games will become indistinguishable from reality….given that we’re on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality and those games could be played on a set up box or a pc or whatever, and there would probably billions of such computers or set top boxes…it would seem to follow that the odds that we’re in base reality is one in billions…tell me what’s wrong with that argument.

When I saw him answer the simulation question, I was immediately reminded of  the 2001 film, Avalon.

The simulation question has been talked about extensively in the last month or so, but I still haven’t seen any physicists chime in and it seems an argument from this perspective would be most appropriate for Musk (1). There was a response from a cognitive scientist and a philosopher here, but they seem to have missed the mark a bit, and they don’t seem to have understood what Musk may have meant by indistinguishable. I’m going to focus on this word, because it makes specific demands on the physics of the possible technologies involved.

Questions:

1. Is it possible to build a simulation “indistinguishable from reality?” Indistinguishable is critical here.
2. I expect the trajectory Musk describes will change. Where is the asymptote? I will have no chance of answering this one.
3. If it is possible to build such a simulation, does it matter?

Re: Question 1: Is it possible to build a simulation “indistinguishable from reality?”

[All Equivalent] I am going to assume, as Musk seems to, that by “reality” he means a world that operates with the same rules as ours appears to; that it has the same laws of physics. The distinction he is making is between “base” reality and simulated reality. They both behave exactly the same but one is an original. His argument seems to require all of the simulated realities operate under the same rules, so that our experiences here can carry implications about what’s possible in realities that simulate other realities.

[Computable] I think I have to assume further, also like Musk, that “reality” is computable. That all of the rules can be reduced to logically rigorous statements, also that there is nothing that doesn’t follow the rules, and therefore classical or quantum computations are sufficient to simulate reality (2).

It happens that our experiences here operate under quantum mechanical principles at the most fundamental level. We live in a universe that obeys Heisenberg Uncertainty, and there is a fundamental scale set by a constant of nature:

$\Delta x \Delta p\ge \dfrac{\hbar} {2}$

Any object we observe has a momentum ‘$p$‘ we associate with what Newton called a “quantity of motion”, and a position ‘$x$‘. This inequality is an assertion about the distributions of position and momentum. Roughly speaking, the uncertainty principle sets an absolute, fundamental limit on how well it is possible to know $x$ and $p$. This limit comes from the quantity $h$ – it is Planck’s constant. It is an incredibly small number measured in units of space and time we’re familiar with, but it is not zero, meaning it is impossible to know both the position and momentum of an object perfectly.

The less obvious consequence for our purpose: the uncertainty principle represents the limits in nature’s own detail. Once you know as much as uncertainty principle permits, there really is nothing else to know: nature itself carries no more information (3).

It shouldn’t seem plausible that a full fidelity (“indistinguishable”) simulation of a physical space could be housed in any volume less than or equal to that space, but I don’t know how to prove this. My intuition says the most parsimonious way to simulate a  physical space is to have that volume time evolve on its own. As Einstein put it, “God does not care about our mathematical difficulties. He integrates empirically.” There shouldn’t be any shortcuts, I think.

Some work on the limits of computation using uncertainty principle, general relativity  (GR) (and/or?)  the second law of thermodynamics has been done, producing theoretical limits regarding computation. This work is bit out of my depth but it seems GR is required for its limits on energy density (4). Anyway, these details should not interfere with reaching this implication: Because there are fundamental limits on computational power, and by [All Equivalent] these limits apply to a simulating reality, it is not possible to embed, as a subsystem, an indistinguishable simulation of a region within that region. There can’t physically be any substitute for proper reality.

Now, what about the plug-in Matrix kind, aka the dream or the video game? Maybe it is only necessary to fully simulate observed, or observable regions of space and time? And even then only to the limits of observational powers of the individual. I have been assuming that our “reality” fully obeys all the known laws of physics, even when we don’t directly test or observe them. I should just be able to say this kind can be rejected because it is solipsism – we are trying to use physics here and this would take all the bets off. But I think I can do better, especially since it was this kind Musk directly proposed, though I will have to offer inductive arguments.

1. This world is too shitty for too many people. Unless Musk somehow thinks this reality is his very own oyster and none of the rest of us are real, what reason would we have to simulate a reality like this with so much suffering?
2. All software has bugs. “Indistinguishable” is too strong a demand for any software to meet with, no matter how advanced its developer. Honestly I think bug-free software cannot exist. There would be dejavu’s and glitches.
3. This reality is definitely not a video game in its lack of lucidity. Why don’t we know it’s a simulation?
4. If we had this kind of computational power, we could do a lot better for a video game than this. It would literally make gods out of everyone. Just ask: are you living in the world you wish existed?

If an indistinguishable reality were possible, it would not be desirable. The truth is too hard. If people had unlimited power to create their own realities they would hide from base “reality” in ways that are more robust and complete than religion and technology  allow them currently.

I have one remaining physical argument. We know that some physical systems are described by models whose equations lead to algorithms that are “hard” in this sense: That the computation time needed to predict observables scales so greatly that the computer would effectively require the lifetime of a universe in base reality to integrate, violating our [computable] assumption (5). This argument is not without a certain subtle problem.

Re: Question 2: I expect the trajectory Musk describes will change. Where is the asymptote?

I should just give up on this one for now…I suspect the bound found by Seth Lloyd is too generous but I don’t know how to improve it:

$\text{Max Operations Per Second}$ $\sim \dfrac{mc^2}{h}$

The numerator is the most recognized formula in physics: the rest energy of Lloyd’s “ultimate laptop” from relativity. Planck’s constant has appeared again because this is a quantum computer, and the computation speed is limited by how quickly one state can “rotate” into another state that is sufficiently …distinguishable, again determined by Heisenberg uncertainty(6).

Re: Question 3: If it is possible to build such a simulation, does it matter?

When we ask for indistinguishability we are asking, by definition, for a reality that will never fail to satisfy any demand we might make of it. It is impossible to devise an experiment that would reveal that it is a simulation. I don’t know why Musk is unsatisfied with this (7). Again by definition, these doubts would persist for anyone living in base “reality.”

I think a minimal plea for sanity requires us to take our reality as it presents itself. Further, that we take it as simply as it presents itself, and imagine no hidden variables, mechanisms, Wizards of Oz, Dungeon Masters, Cartesian Demons, or code beyond nature’s capacity for information, i.e. its ability to distinguish.

It is a hardcore, base reality that what can’t be observed really isn’t there. A simulated reality and a base reality if indistinguishable must be one and the same. Nature itself can brook no hypotheses about the unobservable. We cannot allow ourselves superstition, or even agnosticism if we are going to move past barriers of imagination. We’ll have to be atheist. Nature is just too creative and extends too far beyond our ken to allow us any less.

Maybe we should be hopeful that we are living in a simulation…either we develop simulations that are indistinguishable from reality or civilization ceases to exist.

Avalon, the legendary land
The isle of apple-trees and mist
Avalon is the land of elves
Where the hero comes today

Avalon, the legendary land
The hero set out there

Avalon is the land of elves
Avalon is the heavenly isle of shadows
Enchanted isle
The ship set out to an unknown voyage
Avalon…

1. There are reasons for a good physicist (not me) to stay out of this discussion. The primary one I’m thinking of being that this notion is, at least at face, untestable. Please take all of the physics presented here with a grain of salt.
2. One thing I’m definitely not sure of: would this reality simulation require a theory of everything, so that all of the physical laws would have to be known?
3. It might be argued that nature does know more, but simply behaves in a way that prevents us from knowing or observing any more. I think all hypotheses of this kind can be equated to a “hidden variables” description of quantum mechanics, and I believe all such theories have been excluded by Bell’s Theorem and its experimental verification(here, and here).
4. There’s a whole literature on this that I won’t be able to go into. I neglect distinctions  made between limits on memory capacity, the longevity of a record, and what research in this area may imply about time itself, and any relationships between gravity and thermodynamics. In due time, I think the research on quantum computing will reveal much more about these questions.
5. Most of the research in this area is for Classical computation – where the states of computer are strictly binary, 1 or 0. The situation for quantum complexity is less clear, as this field is still fairly new and many quantum algorithms are still being developed.
6. There is an energy and time relation analogous to the one for momentum and position, though its interpretation is a bit more subtle.
7. Really I think he didn’t mean the full quantum mechanical notion of indistinguishable, but I needed an excuse to write this post.

# A Nation of Death.

This world doesn’t really belong to people like me. It belongs to beautiful people who want to share their voices, share their art, and share themselves. Life is for people who love it.

Life is for people like this:

It is not for those endlessly ruminating, and who think rather than act. It is for humans such as these who live with themselves and love without shame.

Apparently the bullet-riddled bodies of twenty first-graders wasn’t enough for the people of this country. Maybe enough blood has been spilled, at last? I’d offer some facts about the steady increase in mass shootings after the lift of the assault weapons ban in 2004 but that would hardly deal with the issue. What is needed is a massive alteration of the American conscience, enough to counter the moral insanity that twists the religious freedom of one into the subjugation of another and pretends fearful, craven men to be of great valor.

Any nation could be expected, with some rare probability, to produce individuals who are capable of things like this, but recognize there is something specific about the mass hysteria and culture-bound psychoses of the United States that turn the deeply disturbed into the profoundly dangerous. This is something I’ve written about here before.

Maybe some people don’t like how the world is changing. Maybe for some people this is all going to fast, and they don’t know how to keep up and get comfortable with all of these people being themselves.

Well too fucking bad. We’re not going back. Nobody’s going back. We’re not going to have transwomen stabbed up on the goddamn metro. We’re not going to have people pay the price of their lives for the radical act of going out to dance. Orlando shooting survivor Angel Santiago:

Let these sentiments join with those offered elsewhere in these days and contribute to the sea change which is so needed:

Let something be done to bring an end to this. Silence is complicity, and prayers and condolences do not suffice. To offer these when a clear course of moral action is available is an act of cowardice. Let this blood be enough.

# You are a sociopath.

Why is war the kind of event that can put two brothers on opposite sides of a conflict?

It did seem ironic to me that President Obama would decry the attitude that Americans have adopted toward events like this. Just two days after the Umpqua Community College shooting, a US Airforce C-130 gunship attacked a Hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan run by Doctors without Borders, killing 22 (1). Obama in this case had little to offer but a weak apology and no public comment. It seems the killing of foreigners is routine, and Americans’ response to the killing of foreigners is routine.

Why do foreign lives matter so little to Americans? Americans are not special of course, people of every country value the lives of their own over others. Why do black lives matter so little to most whites in the United States, and violence on the part of the police against black youth so readily justified or excused in the minds of the majority?

We like to flatter ourselves with the notion that we are very social and empathetic creatures, but there are important caveats(2). Quite simply, empathizing with others requires us to know them. We know our family members best, our friends and coworkers second.

Imagine that everyone resides in a social network, with ties that extend like concentric circles out to neighbors or friends, then out to friends of friends, etc. until the world population is reached (3). People close-in are typically in the “in-group,” and benefit the most from our prosocial tendencies.

What is the problem with this? It is very subtle and I’m not sure there is a solution. The increasing globalization of the world seems to have made this effect worse:

The consequences of your actions can reach many more people than your empathy can. For the vast majority of the people in the world in whose lives you have some influence, you are a sociopath.

We work in concert to create the systems that individuals live in. Our actions are individual, but the system is collective. Above I think I have only put into personal terms what people usually call institutional or systemic effects. What most of you don’t seem to understand is that you are a part of a system. It is not something you can externalize; it’s easy to say something is the fault of governments, leaders, or corporations, but that lets us cop out of our personal integration with these constructions and our role in legitimating the actions of leaders.

But how much responsibility can we each hold for this? I’ve written here before about the subtle ways individual behavior is integrated, and emerges into macroscopic behavior that is not predictable from, and is even sometimes directly opposed to individual intention (4). There is something incredibly important in what we don’t understand about how a corporation is capable of mass depraved indifference murder(5), and how citizens’ taxes can pay for drone strikes. And there is something we are not understanding about how wars occur.

Most people are not murderers. Most people don’t want to start wars, but often believe when the fighting starts that it must occur. Even most soldiers do not want to kill anyone. But the social system’s behavior feeds back down to the personal scale, putting human beings onto battlefields, and into conflicts they have no inherent desire for. At least, not until they form a connection to their fellow soldiers.

Yet the world has entered new regime of interconnection. The capacity of people to move about the globe, and to interact across arbitrary distances has implications for the consequences of an individual’s actions (6). There is a kind of “nonlocality” in our actions that was not possible before. It allows us to have a more direct impact on the lives of people far away geographically, but also perhaps to empathize where we could not previously. I’m not sure we can know where this will lead.

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1. Kunduz articles at the Guardian , New York Times.
2. A prior post on Race and Human Groups.
3. Social networks have a well documented small-world property. It’s never more than 6 degrees to Kevin Bacon. For a”social distance” metric defined in this way it seems the capacity for empathy drops as quickly as the number of people reached expands.
4. Prior posts: The moral implications of nonlinearity and emergence., The multiplicity of agency.
5. The 2013 collapse of a garment factory in Dhaka is just the one example that came immediately to mind: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-22476774. You may be reminded of the 2003 doc The Corporation.

There is an aspect of this I will try to post about later: there are segments of the population that are not well integrated in this globalized social network. They are disproportionately older and are being left behind in a way.

# Obama’s invisible moderation

As was pointed out in the news media, a short time before Obama actually nominated Merrick Garland, Orrin Hatch was quoted thus:

[Obama] could easily name Merrick Garland, who is a fine man. He probably won’t do that because this appointment is about the election. So I’m pretty sure he’ll name someone the [liberal Democratic base] wants.

This man has had eight years to get to know this president. Why did the nomination surprise him? He really doesn’t know, doesn’t understand, and cannot perceive that Obama is a moderate. Obama was not trolling and this was not really a political maneuver. He is not a radical ultra-leftist Black Panther (unfortunately), yet this escapes nearly everyone on both sides of the political aisle. The daftness of Hatch, and the republican obstructionism on the nomination is just the most recent example of a more general pattern.

The nation should be humiliated: Obama has always been judged by the color of his skin, and not by the content of his character, or his policies. He could have been twice as liberal as he has been, and he would have encountered the same level of enmity from  republicans, and the same level of suspicion, and birtherism. He has not been much more progressive than a typical Democrat of the recent era, yet enjoys near unconditional support from the black community.

These issues were discussed at length by Ta-Nehisi Coates, here. Here I only want to add a few things I’ve noticed that were not addressed there that reflect my own perspective. And we are entering a time where we can begin to look with a clearer hindsight.

It seems to me that he is in an impossible situation. No one can unilaterally alter the world they are interacting with, not completely. People take cues on how to behave towards us from how we behave towards them, but this tendency has its limits and he has proven a master at pressing to those limits. Yet as president he has had to try to improve a country which simply does not want to cooperate with him and is always suspicious of him. I think history will record him as a much lesser president than he could have been if he were not in charge of country with deeply rooted assumptions of white supremacy. The nation has suffered many lost opportunities over the course of his two terms for its mistrust.

This last point brings me to an often overlooked aspect of racism. People don’t seem to understand how the oppressor is also harmed. There are always opportunity costs – it is easy to see all the ways that whites have benefited from practices of exploitation and dispossession, but all the ways that whites have suffered for this are invisible. The costs suffered by everyone only become visible when you seriously consider the alternative.

The alternative course would have generated many more black doctors. Criminals have been created where instead there should be scientists, engineers, and teachers. This gross wastage is invisible because even now most people, including liberal whites and most black folks, do not adequately reckon with just how profound the lost potential is. The world in which that potential was realized is so radical and foreign from ours seeing it requires more imagination than most people can muster (1,2).

How much better a president could we have had? How much more progress would have been made? I hope this keeps you up at night. We haven’t got a lot of time left. This summer is going to be incredibly hot and global civilization has little time to be bothered with lingering, petty tribalism.

1. This brings to mind a thought experiment, which I might write about in depth later: What would you, yourself think about slavery if you happened to be born into the American south in 1830 as the child of a plantation owner? How far beyond the bounds created by that culture would you be able to reach? What would you have to grab hold of as a lemma? Would you be able to grapple with the gravity and the depth of the evil of the thing? We are prompted to ask, what are the things that we do today that history will record as grievous crimes?
2. It is understood I could say the same about women and oppressed classes throughout history. And again as I’ve posted earlier, I can’t exclude the possibility that structures of dominance and power are unavoidable.

# The “great man” of history.

Donald Trump is a weak candidate: he is a fool, lacks charisma, and is a poor strategist in politics and everything else. One has to wonder how this feckless clown could have possibly met with such success.

There have been other people like this before: Pat Buchanan is the first that comes to mind, but also Barry Goldwater. What is it about Donald Trump?

There is nothing about Donald Trump. Society has always produced people like him, and always will, but what is special is the time we find ourselves in. Apparently the United States is ready for a return to nationalism and nativism, and it is on these currents he has sailed to the nomination.

It’s these massive trends that seem to be beyond our control and understanding, so we lean on our need for narratives, and tend to focus disproportionately on the individual actors of history. Though it is through systems the actors’ scripts are written.

The world is “complex” in a particular sense: most individuals contribute a little to the large scale behavior, as would be expected in a system that aggregates all their actions uniformly – one that is effectively stochastic or chaotic on all scales. But somehow the world is ordered in some ways and not totally chaotic – there is enough structure for a few people to have an apparently large impact, so their actions reach much further than would be expected in a chaotic(or “noisy”) system. The world may be on the ‘edge’ of chaos.

My point is that the true complexity of the world is something we don’t understand, and most people fail to take a system level perspective for that reason. Human faculty is more amenable to storytelling. We like to have heroes and villains, even if this perspective makes some of the deepest problems of human society more difficult to solve.

I can take up one example to illustrate the point – not long ago, one of the disgusting things Trump said was that women would have to have some kind of punishment for getting an abortion. The media seized on this of course, and there was a lot of blather about this, but here is the problem: Trump has passed no law, and may never be able to pass any such law, but the conservative takeover of state and local governments almost complete. And it is at the local level that a slow, creeping regime of anti-choice law has been imposed in many parts of the country. It is this greater problem that is distracted from when the national discussion centers on some celebrity shitstick – it is the greater problem because Trump will almost certainly lose, but the steady loss of women’s rights will continue afterwards.(1)

I have been expecting for a few months now that Donald Trump will break the Republican party, as the tides have dictated. The fundamental dilemma is being exposed: No candidate can win the Republican primary without being staunchly anti-immigrant. No candidate can win a general election while being staunchly anti-immigrant. This transition seems to have occurred during the Bush administration, while most of white america failed to notice. I am expecting a 3rd party candidate to appear in the next few weeks from establishment conservatives. In the aftermath of 2016 (before the election, even?) there will perhaps be a tectonic shift in the allegiances of both parties, as the system reforms itself and responds to the radical shift in the country’s demographics.

I have posted here before that what lies on the other side of a singularity, or a phase transition cannot be predicted. We may find communists and neonazis, radicals left and right jumping into the melee. We are approaching the hour of extremes.

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1. Obviously climate change is another prime example, and one for which we can’t even find a proper villain to motivate our action. The bad guy in that case is us.

# Jimmy Carter and the American Imperium.

a nation that is at peace tonight everywhere in the world

I do not promise you that this struggle for freedom will be easy. I do not promise a quick way out of our nation’s problems, when the truth is that the only way out is an all-out effort. … there are no short-term solutions to our long-range problems. There is simply no way to avoid sacrifice.

This intolerable dependence on foreign oil threatens our economic independence and the very security of our nation. The energy crisis is real. It is worldwide. It is a clear and present danger to our nation. These are facts and we simply must face them.

Americans have always, since the country’s first imperialist era, depended on the dirty deeds done by their leaders. To advance the agendas of economic and political subjugation of foreign nations, and never allow any nation that would democratically elect a leader insubordinate to the empire to democratically elect any leader. And most importantly, to keep Americans in a state of vain ignorance about how their nation was able to enjoy such advancement, even while “developing” and “third world” nations languished.

Once, they made the mistake of electing a man who would not do these deeds, and would not allow them their naiveté (1). A man who apparently believed the nation to be capable of standing on its own feet, and by its own labors and resources enjoy a decent standard of living.

I don’t know if that was ever possible, but we are going to find out. American Imperialism was never going to do anything more than delay the eventual crisis point – the dilemma being faced now is very same as in 1979, though it has the whole species captured now, and the fuse has been considerably shortened.

1. They seem to have avoided making this mistake again, with Bernie Sanders having all but lost his primary bid.

# There isn’t anything down there, you know.

In mathematics, you don’t get anything without making an assumption. Math doesn’t tell you what’s “true,” it only tells you what follows from the assumptions. It’s derivations are only as believable as the axioms that form the base of the structure.

The same is true about the whole of epistemology. In an earlier post I discussed the fractal that describes a person’s knowledge, and neglected any mention of its root. Well,

At root is pure assumption.

As Richard Feynman said once, “you have to allow something to be true.”(1) These things go down to the bone marrow of our worldview. I sometimes think that very often political discussions fail completely to sway anyone, like religious discussions, because we are never really getting to the root assumptions that people are basing their positions on.

I have invoked the “materialistic principle” here a number of times. Alternatively, one might assume object permanence(2), or the similar notion of conservation laws. Religious folks will take their texts, contradiction be damned.

But there is no safe ground. There is absolutely nothing that can be beyond doubt. There isn’t anything down there. William James(3):

Most of you are devoted for good or ill to the reflective life. Many of you are students of philosophy, and have already felt in your own persons the skepticism and unreality that too much grubbing in the abstract roots of things will breed….Too much questioning and too little active responsibility lead, almost as often as too much sensualism does, to the edge of the slope, at the bottom of which lie pessimism and the nightmare or suicidal view of life.

I don’t agree with James about the end result of this rooting around; he can only speak for himself. Sarte found existentialism down there, and in a way my own view is similar to his, though I am motivated by a desire to understand nature, and am not interested in hypotheses that separate human beings as agents that supersede nature’s principles or pretend them to be anything other than a consequence of same.

A choice must be made of where to “hook in” on the side of this epistemological mountain, and the choice must necessarily be arbitrary. I’m not sure anything can even be articulated without this. This entire post presupposes that the mind can examine itself in a rigorous way, and I’ve preloaded it with a lifetime of inferences.

A good part of my teenage years were spent rooting around and ruminating on largely useless questions like this, searching around in religious texts and philosophy for some sound basis (4). If you have not yet done this for yourself, I encourage you to take a few years off, with “too little active responsibility,” and engaging in “too much questioning.” It will be very enriching if you are the kind of person who survives staring into the abyss.

1. He was talking about magnets in that context. We don’t get to know why opposite charges attract and like charges repel…we must assume it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MO0r930Sn_8
2. Try playing peekaboo with Ted Cruz. Enjoy this.
3. I am of course not a diest, but strongly urge anyone who hasn’t to read “Is life worth living?” William James is one of my favorites. https://archive.org/stream/islifeworthlivin00jameuoft#page/16/mode/2up
4. No, not even for morality will you find a sound basis. Common atheist claims of a rational basis for this ring false to me. For no good reason really, I just reject solipsism: I observe that there are what appear to be other people and creatures with thoughts, feelings and experiences of their own. I suffer and experience happiness and I therefore assume by their appearance that they too exist and so does their suffering. It satisfies me to alleviate even some small part of this suffering. Let this motivate my action.